Regulation (EU) 2018/1999 of the European Parliament and of the CouncilDangos y teitl llawn

SECTION B: ANALYTICAL BASIS(1) U.K.

4. CURRENT SITUATION AND PROJECTIONS WITH EXISTING POLICIES AND MEASURES(2) (3) U.K.

4.1. Projected evolution of main exogenous factors influencing energy system and GHG emission developments U.K.

i.

Macroeconomic forecasts (GDP and population growth)

ii.

Sectoral changes expected to impact the energy system and GHG emissions

iii.

Global energy trends, international fossil fuel prices, EU ETS carbon price

iv.

Technology cost developments

4.2. Dimension Decarbonisation U.K.

4.2.1. GHG emissions and removals U.K.

i.

Trends in current GHG emissions and removals in the EU ETS, effort sharing and LULUCF sectors and different energy sectors

ii.

Projections of sectoral developments with existing national and Union policies and measures at least until 2040 (including for the year 2030)

4.2.2. Renewable energy U.K.

i.

Current share of renewable energy in gross final energy consumption and in different sectors (heating and cooling, electricity and transport) as well as per technology in each of these sectors

ii.

Indicative projections of development with existing policies for the year 2030 (with an outlook to the year 2040)

4.3. Dimension Energy efficiency U.K.

i.

Current primary and final energy consumption in the economy and per sector (including industry, residential, service and transport)

ii.

Current potential for the application of high-efficiency cogeneration and efficient district heating and cooling(4)

iii.

Projections considering existing energy efficiency policies, measures and programmes as described in point 1.2.(ii) for primary and final energy consumption for each sector at least until 2040 (including for the year 2030)(5)

iv.

Cost-optimal levels of minimum energy performance requirements resulting from national calculations, in accordance with Article 5 of Directive 2010/31/EU

4.4. Dimension energy security U.K.

i.

Current energy mix, domestic energy resources, import dependency, including relevant risks

ii.

Projections of development with existing policies and measures at least until 2040 (including for the year 2030)

4.5. Dimension internal energy market U.K.

4.5.1. Electricity interconnectivity U.K.

i.

Current interconnection level and main interconnectors(6)

ii.

Projections of interconnector expansion requirements (including for the year 2030)(7)

4.5.2. Energy transmission infrastructure U.K.

i.

Key characteristics of the existing transmission infrastructure for electricity and gas(8)

ii.

Projections of network expansion requirements at least until 2040 (including for the year 2030)(9)

4.5.3. Electricity and gas markets, energy prices U.K.

i.

Current situation of electricity and gas markets, including energy prices

ii.

Projections of development with existing policies and measures at least until 2040 (including for the year 2030)

4.6. Dimension research, innovation and competitiveness U.K.

i.

Current situation of the low-carbon-technologies sector and, to the extent possible, its position on the global market (that analysis is to be carried out at Union or global level)

ii.

Current level of public and, where available, private research and innovation spending on low-carbon-technologies, current number of patents, and current number of researchers

iii.

Breakdown of current price elements that make up the main three price components (energy, network, taxes/levies)

iv.

Description of energy subsidies, including for fossil fuels

5. IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF PLANNED POLICIES AND MEASURES(10) U.K.

5.1. Impacts of planned policies and measures described in section 3 on energy system and GHG emissions and removals, including comparison to projections with existing policies and measures (as described in section 4). U.K.

i.

Projections of the development of the energy system and GHG emissions and removals as well as, where relevant of emissions of air pollutants in accordance with Directive (EU) 2016/2284 under the planned policies and measures at least until ten years after the period covered by the plan (including for the last year of the period covered by the plan), including relevant Union policies and measures.

ii.

Assessment of policy interactions (between existing policies and measures and planned policies and measures within a policy dimension and between existing policies and measures and planned policies and measures of different dimensions) at least until the last year of the period covered by the plan, in particular to establish a robust understanding of the impact of energy efficiency / energy savings policies on the sizing of the energy system and to reduce the risk of stranded investment in energy supply

iii.

Assessment of interactions between existing policies and measures and planned policies and measures, and between those policies and measures and Union climate and energy policy measures

5.2. Macroeconomic and, to the extent feasible, the health, environmental, employment and education, skills and social impacts, including just transition aspects (in terms of costs and benefits as well as cost-effectiveness) of the planned policies and measures described in section 3 at least until the last year of the period covered by the plan, including comparison to projections with existing policies and measures U.K.

5.3. Overview of investment needs U.K.

i.

existing investment flows and forward investment assumptions with regard to the planned policies and measures

ii.

sector or market risk factors or barriers in the national or regional context

iii.

analysis of additional public finance support or resources to fill identified gaps identified under point ii

5.4. Impacts of planned policies and measures described in section 3 on other Member States and regional cooperation at least until the last year of the period covered by the plan, including comparison to projections with existing policies and measures U.K.

i.

Impacts on the energy system in neighbouring and other Member States in the region to the extent possible

ii.

Impacts on energy prices, utilities and energy market integration

iii.

Where relevant, impacts on regional cooperation

(1)

See Part 2 for a detailed list of parameters and variables to be reported in Section B of the Plan.

(2)

Current situation shall reflect the date of submission of the national plan (or latest available date). Existing policies and measures encompass implemented and adopted policies and measures. Adopted policies and measures are those for which an official government decision has been made by the date of submission of the national plan and there is a clear commitment to proceed with implementation. Implemented policies and measures are those for which one or more of the following applies at the date of submission of the integrated national energy and climate plan or the integrated national energy and climate progress report: directly applicable European legislation or national legislation is in force, one or more voluntary agreements have been established, financial resources have been allocated, human resources have been mobilised.

(3)

The selection of exogenous factors may be based on the assumptions made in the EU Reference Scenario 2016 or other subsequent policy scenarios for the same variables. Besides, Member States specific results of the EU Reference Scenario 2016 as well as results of subsequent policy scenarios may also be a useful source of information when developing national projections with existing policies and measures and impact assessments.

(4)

In accordance with Article 14(1) of Directive 2012/27/EU.

(5)

This reference business as usual projection shall be the basis for the 2030 final and primary energy consumption target which is described in 2.3 and conversion factors.

(6)

With reference to overviews of existing transmission infrastructure by Transmission System Operators (TSOs).

(7)

With reference to national network development plans and regional investment plans of TSOs.

(8)

With reference to overviews of existing transmission infrastructure by TSOs.

(9)

With reference to national network development plans and regional investment plans of TSOs.

(10)

Planned policies and measures are options under discussion and having a realistic chance of being adopted and implemented after the date of submission of the national plan. The resulting projections under section 5.1.i shall therefore include not only implemented and adopted policies and measures (projections with existing policies and measures), but also planned policies and measures.