It is recommended that, in the absence of radar data, lateral ground track dispersion be modelled on the assumption that the spread of tracks perpendicular to the backbone track follows a Gaussian normal distribution. Experience has shown that this assumption is a reasonable one in most cases.

Assuming a Gaussian distribution with a standard deviation S, illustrated in Figure C-1, about 98,8 percent of all movements fall within boundaries of ± 2,5·S (i.e. within a swathe of width of 5·S).

A Gaussian distribution can normally be modelled adequately using 7 discrete sub-tracks evenly spaced between the ± 2,5·S boundaries of the swathe as shown in Figure C-1.

However, the adequacy of the approximation depends on the relationship of the sub-track track separation to the heights of the aircraft above. There may be situations (very tight or very dispersed tracks) where a different number of subtracks is more appropriate. Too few subtracks cause ‘fingers’ to appear in the contour. Tables C-1 and C-2 show the parameters for a subdivision into between 5 and 13 subtracks. Table C-1 shows the location of the particular subtracks, Table C-2 the corresponding percentage of movements on each subtrack.