When determining the likelihood that policy holders will exercise contractual options, including lapses and surrenders, insurance and reinsurance undertakings shall conduct an analysis of past policyholder behaviour and a prospective assessment of expected policyholder behaviour. That analysis shall take into account all of the following:

1. (a)

   how beneficial the exercise of the options was and will be to the policy holders under circumstances at the time of exercising the option;

2. (b)

   the influence of past and future economic conditions;

3. (c)

   the impact of past and future management actions;

4. (d)

   any other circumstances that are likely to influence decisions by policyholders on whether to exercise the option.

The likelihood shall only be considered to be independent of the elements referred to in points (a) to (d) where there is empirical evidence to support such an assumption.