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16.—(1) This paragraph specifies the applicable financial year for the purposes of calculating P's residual income.
(2) Unless sub-paragraph (3) or (5) applies, the applicable financial year is PY-1.
(3) Where the Welsh Ministers are satisfied that P's residual income for CY is likely to be at least 15% lower than P's residual income for PY-1, the applicable financial year is CY.
(4) Sub-paragraph (5) applies where the applicable financial year for the previous academic year was the financial year beginning immediately before the first day of the previous academic year.
(5) Where this paragraph applies, the applicable financial year is to be determined as follows—
(a)if the Welsh Ministers are satisfied that P's residual income for CY is likely to be at least 15% lower than P's residual income for PY, the applicable financial year is CY;
(b)otherwise, the applicable financial year is PY.